Upland forest retreat lags behind sea-level rise in the mid-Atlantic coast.

Ghost forests consisting of dead trees adjacent to marshes are striking indicators of climate change, and marsh migration into retreating coastal forests is a primary mechanism for marsh survival in the face of global sea-level rise. Models of coastal transgression typically assume inundation of a static topography and instantaneous conversion of forest to marsh with rising seas. In contrast, here we use four decades of satellite observations to show that many low-elevation forests along the US mid-Atlantic coast have survived despite undergoing relative sea-level rise rates (RSLRR) that are among the fastest on Earth. Lateral forest retreat rates were strongly mediated by topography and seawater salinity, but not directly explained by spatial variability in RSLRR, climate, or disturbance. The elevation of coastal tree lines shifted upslope at rates correlated with, but far less than, contemporary RSLRR. Together, these findings suggest a multi-decadal lag between RSLRR and land conversion that implies coastal ecosystem resistance. Predictions based on instantaneous conversion of uplands to wetlands may therefore overestimate future land conversion in ways that challenge the timing of greenhouse gas fluxes and marsh creation, but also imply that the full effects of historical sea-level rise have yet to be realized.

Marine Transgression in Modern Times.

Marine transgression associated with rising sea levels causes coastal erosion, landscape transitions, and displacement of human populations globally. This process takes two general forms. Along open-ocean coasts, active transgression occurs when sediment-delivery rates are unable to keep pace with accommodation creation, leading to wave-driven erosion and/or landward translation of coastal landforms. It is highly visible, rapid, and limited to narrow portions of the coast. In contrast, passive transgression is subtler and slower, and impacts broader areas. It occurs along low-energy, inland marine margins; follows existing upland contours; and is characterized predominantly by the landward translation of coastal ecosystems. The nature and relative rates of transgression along these competing margins lead to expansion and/or contraction of the coastal zone and-particularly under the influence of anthropogenic interventions-will dictate future coastal-ecosystem response to sea-level rise, as well as attendant, often inequitable, impacts on human populations.

Shoreface erosion counters blue carbon accumulation in transgressive barrier-island systems.

Landward migration of coastal ecosystems in response to sea-level rise is altering coastal carbon dynamics. Although such landscapes rapidly accumulate soil carbon, barrier-island migration jeopardizes long-term storage through burial and exposure of organic-rich backbarrier deposits along the lower beach and shoreface. Here, we quantify the carbon flux associated with the seaside erosion of backbarrier lagoon and peat deposits along the Virginia Atlantic Coast. Barrier transgression leads to the release of approximately 26.1 Gg of organic carbon annually. Recent (1994-2017 C.E.) erosion rates exceed annual soil carbon accumulation rates (1984-2020) in adjacent backbarrier ecosystems by approximately 30%. Additionally, shoreface erosion of thick lagoon sediments accounts for >80% of total carbon losses, despite containing lower carbon densities than overlying salt marsh peat. Together, these results emphasize the impermanence of carbon stored in coastal environments and suggest that existing landscape-scale carbon budgets may overstate the magnitude of the coastal carbon sink.

Modeling the mechanisms of conifer mortality under seawater exposure.

Relative sea level rise (SLR) increasingly impacts coastal ecosystems through the formation of ghost forests. To predict the future of coastal ecosystems under SLR and changing climate, it is important to understand the physiological mechanisms underlying coastal tree mortality and to integrate this knowledge into dynamic vegetation models. We incorporate the physiological effect of salinity and hypoxia in a dynamic vegetation model in the Earth system land model, and used the model to investigate the mechanisms of mortality of conifer forests on the west and east coast sites of USA, where trees experience different form of sea water exposure. Simulations suggest similar physiological mechanisms can result in different mortality patterns. At the east coast site that experienced severe increases in seawater exposure, trees loose photosynthetic capacity and roots rapidly, and both storage carbon and hydraulic conductance decrease significantly within a year. Over time, further consumption of storage carbon that leads to carbon starvation dominates mortality. At the west coast site that gradually exposed to seawater through SLR, hydraulic failure dominates mortality because root loss impacts on conductance are greater than the degree of storage carbon depletion. Measurements and modeling focused on understanding the physiological mechanisms of mortality is critical to reducing predictive uncertainty.

Hidden vulnerability of US Atlantic coast to sea-level rise due to vertical land motion.

The vulnerability of coastal environments to sea-level rise varies spatially, particularly due to local land subsidence. However, high-resolution observations and models of coastal subsidence are scarce, hindering an accurate vulnerability assessment. We use satellite data from 2007 to 2020 to create high-resolution map of subsidence rate at mm-level accuracy for different land covers along the ~3,500 km long US Atlantic coast. Here, we show that subsidence rate exceeding 3 mm per year affects most coastal areas, including wetlands, forests, agricultural areas, and developed regions. Coastal marshes represent the dominant land cover type along the US Atlantic coast and are particularly vulnerable to subsidence. We estimate that 58 to 100% of coastal marshes are losing elevation relative to sea level and show that previous studies substantially underestimate marsh vulnerability by not fully accounting for subsidence.

Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink.

Ecosystem connectivity tends to increase the resilience and function of ecosystems responding to stressors. Coastal ecosystems sequester disproportionately large amounts of carbon, but rapid exchange of water, nutrients, and sediment makes them vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Individual components of the coastal landscape (i.e., marsh, forest, bay) have contrasting responses to sea level rise, making it difficult to forecast the response of the integrated coastal carbon sink. Here we couple a spatially-explicit geomorphic model with a point-based carbon accumulation model, and show that landscape connectivity, in-situ carbon accumulation rates, and the size of the landscape-scale coastal carbon stock all peak at intermediate sea level rise rates despite divergent responses of individual components. Progressive loss of forest biomass under increasing sea level rise leads to a shift from a system dominated by forest biomass carbon towards one dominated by marsh soil carbon that is maintained by substantial recycling of organic carbon between marshes and bays. These results suggest that climate change strengthens connectivity between adjacent coastal ecosystems, but with tradeoffs that include a shift towards more labile carbon, smaller marsh and forest extents, and the accumulation of carbon in portions of the landscape more vulnerable to sea level rise and erosion.

Processes and mechanisms of coastal woody-plant mortality.

Observations of woody plant mortality in coastal ecosystems are globally widespread, but the overarching processes and underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. This knowledge deficiency, combined with rapidly changing water levels, storm surges, atmospheric CO2 , and vapor pressure deficit, creates large predictive uncertainty regarding how coastal ecosystems will respond to global change. Here, we synthesize the literature on the mechanisms that underlie coastal woody-plant mortality, with the goal of producing a testable hypothesis framework. The key emergent mechanisms underlying mortality include hypoxic, osmotic, and ionic-driven reductions in whole-plant hydraulic conductance and photosynthesis that ultimately drive the coupled processes of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. The relative importance of these processes in driving mortality, their order of progression, and their degree of coupling depends on the characteristics of the anomalous water exposure, on topographic effects, and on taxa-specific variation in traits and trait acclimation. Greater inundation exposure could accelerate mortality globally; however, the interaction of changing inundation exposure with elevated CO2 , drought, and rising vapor pressure deficit could influence mortality likelihood. Models of coastal forests that incorporate the frequency and duration of inundation, the role of climatic drivers, and the processes of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation can yield improved estimates of inundation-induced woody-plant mortality.

Pattern formation in marsh ecosystems modeled through the interaction of marsh vegetation, mussels and sediment.

Spatial self-organization, a common feature of multi-species communities, can provide important insights into ecosystem structure and resilience. As environmental conditions gradually worsen (e.g., resource depletion, erosion intensified by storms, drought), some ecological systems collapse to an irreversible state once a tipping point is reached. Spatial patterning may be one way for them to cope with such changes. We use a mathematical model to describe self-organization of an eroding marsh shoreline based on three-way interactions between sediment volume and two ecosystem engineers - smooth cordgrass Spartina alterniflora and ribbed mussels Geukensia demissa. Our model indicates that scale-dependent interactions between multiple ecosystem engineers drive the self-organization of eroding marsh edges and regulate the spatial scale of shoreline morphology. Spatial self-organization of the marsh edge increases the system's productivity, allows it to withstand erosion, and delays degradation that otherwise would occur in the absence of strong species interactions. Further, changes in wavelength and variance of the spatial patterns give insight into marsh recession. Finally, we find that the presence of mussels in the system modulates the spatial scale of the patterns, generates patterns with shorter wavelengths, and allows the system to tolerate a greater level of erosion. Although previous studies suggest that self-organization can emerge from local interactions and can result in increased ecosystem persistence and stability in various ecosystems, our findings extend these concepts to coastal salt marshes, emphasizing the importance of the ecosystem engineers, smooth cordgrass and ribbed mussels, and demonstrating the potential value of self-organization for ecosystem management and restoration.

Temperature optimum for marsh resilience and carbon accumulation revealed in a whole-ecosystem warming experiment.

Coastal marshes are globally important, carbon dense ecosystems simultaneously maintained and threatened by sea-level rise. Warming temperatures may increase wetland plant productivity and organic matter accumulation, but temperature-modulated feedbacks between productivity and decomposition make it difficult to assess how wetlands and their thick, organic-rich soils will respond to climate warming. Here, we actively increased aboveground plant-surface and belowground soil temperatures in two marsh plant communities, and found that a moderate amount of warming (1.7°C above ambient temperatures) consistently maximized root growth, marsh elevation gain, and belowground carbon accumulation. Marsh elevation loss observed at higher temperatures was associated with increased carbon mineralization and increased microtopographic heterogeneity, a potential early warning signal of marsh drowning. Maximized elevation and belowground carbon accumulation for moderate warming scenarios uniquely suggest linkages between metabolic theory of individuals and landscape-scale ecosystem resilience and function, but our work indicates nonpermanent benefits as global temperatures continue to rise.

Global blue carbon accumulation in tidal wetlands increases with climate change.

Coastal tidal wetlands produce and accumulate significant amounts of organic carbon (C) that help to mitigate climate change. However, previous data limitations have prevented a robust evaluation of the global rates and mechanisms driving C accumulation. Here, we go beyond recent soil C stock estimates to reveal global tidal wetland C accumulation and predict changes under relative sea level rise, temperature and precipitation. We use data from literature study sites and our new observations spanning wide latitudinal gradients and 20 countries. Globally, tidal wetlands accumulate 53.65 (95%CI: 48.52-59.01) Tg C yr-1, which is ∼30% of the organic C buried on the ocean floor. Modeling based on current climatic drivers and under projected emissions scenarios revealed a net increase in the global C accumulation by 2100. This rapid increase is driven by sea level rise in tidal marshes, and higher temperature and precipitation in mangroves. Countries with large areas of coastal wetlands, like Indonesia and Mexico, are more susceptible to tidal wetland C losses under climate change, while regions such as Australia, Brazil, the USA and China will experience a significant C accumulation increase under all projected scenarios.

Asymmetric root distributions reveal press-pulse responses in retreating coastal forests.

The impacts of climate change on ecosystems are manifested in how organisms respond to episodic and continuous stressors. The conversion of coastal forests to salt marshes represents a prominent example of ecosystem state change, driven by the continuous stress of sea-level rise (press), and episodic storms (pulse). Here, we measured the rooting dimension and fall direction of 143 windthrown eastern red cedar (Juniperus virginiana) trees in a rapidly retreating coastal forest in Chesapeake Bay (USA). We found that tree roots were distributed asymmetrically away from the leading edge of soil salinization and towards freshwater sources. The length, number, and circumference of roots were consistently higher in the upslope direction than downslope direction, suggesting an active morphological adaptation to sea-level rise and salinity stress. Windthrown trees consistently fell in the upslope direction regardless of aspect and prevailing wind direction, suggesting that asymmetric rooting destabilized standing trees, and reduced their ability to withstand high winds. Together, these observations help explain curious observations of coastal forest resilience, and highlight an interesting nonadditive response to climate change, where adaptation to press stressors increases vulnerability to pulse stressors.

Ecosystem-based management for military training, biodiversity, carbon storage and climate resiliency on a complex coastal land/water-scape.

The Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program (DCERP) was a 10-year multi-investigator project funded by the Department of Defense to improve understanding of ecosystem processes and their interactions with natural and anthropogenic stressors at the Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (MCBCL) located in coastal North Carolina. The project was aimed at facilitating ecosystem-based management (EBM) at the MCBCL and other coastal military installations. Because of its scope, interdisciplinary character, and duration, DCERP embodied many of the opportunities and challenges associated with EBM, including the need for explicit goals, system models, long-term perspectives, systems complexity, change inevitability, consideration of humans as ecosystem components, and program adaptability and accountability. We describe key elements of this program, its contributions to coastal EBM, and its relevance as an exemplar of EBM.

Improving Predictions of Salt Marsh Evolution Through Better Integration of Data and Models.

Salt marshes are recognized as valuable resources that are threatened by climate change and human activities. Better management and planning for these ecosystems will depend on understanding which marshes are most vulnerable, what is driving their change, and what their future trajectory is likely to be. Both observations and models have provided inconsistent answers to these questions, likely in part because of comparisons among sites and/or models that differ significantly in their characteristics and processes. Some of these differences almost certainly arise from processes that are not fully accounted for in marsh morphodynamic models. Here, we review distinguishing properties of marshes, important processes missing from many morphodynamic models, and key measurements missing from many observational studies. We then suggest some comparisons between models and observations that will provide critical tests and insights to improve our ability to forecast future change in these coastal landscapes.

Asynchronous nitrogen supply and demand produce nonlinear plant allocation responses to warming and elevated CO2.

Terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change are mediated by complex plant-soil feedbacks that are poorly understood, but often driven by the balance of nutrient supply and demand. We actively increased aboveground plant-surface temperature, belowground soil temperature, and atmospheric CO2 in a brackish marsh and found nonlinear and nonadditive feedbacks in plant responses. Changes in root-to-shoot allocation by sedges were nonlinear, with peak belowground allocation occurring at +1.7 °C in both years. Above 1.7 °C, allocation to root versus shoot production decreased with increasing warming such that there were no differences in root biomass between ambient and +5.1 °C plots in either year. Elevated CO2 altered this response when crossed with +5.1 °C, increasing root-to-shoot allocation due to increased plant nitrogen demand and, consequently, root production. We suggest these nonlinear responses to warming are caused by asynchrony between the thresholds that trigger increased plant nitrogen (N) demand versus increased N mineralization rates. The resulting shifts in biomass allocation between roots and shoots have important consequences for forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and understanding global trends.

Field Experiments and Meta-analysis Reveal Wetland Vegetation as a Crucial Element in the Coastal Protection Paradigm.

Increasing rates of sea-level rise and wave action threaten coastal populations. Defense of shorelines by protection and restoration of wetlands has been invoked as a win-win strategy for humans and nature, yet evidence from field experiments supporting the wetland protection function is uncommon, as is the understanding of its context dependency. Here we provide evidence from field manipulations showing that the loss of wetland vegetation, regardless of disturbance size, increases the rate of erosion on wave-stressed shorelines. Vegetation removal (simulated disturbance) along the edge of salt marshes reveals that loss of wetland plants elevates the rate of lateral erosion and that extensive root systems, rather than aboveground biomass, are primarily responsible for protection against edge erosion in marshes. Meta-analysis further shows that disturbances that generate plant die-off on salt marsh edges generally hasten edge erosion in coastal marshes and that the erosion protection function of wetlands relates more to lateral than vertical edge-erosional processes and is positively correlated with the amount of belowground plant biomass lost. Collectively, our findings substantiate a coastal protection paradigm that incorporates preservation of shoreline vegetation, illuminate key context dependencies in this theory, and highlight local disturbances (e.g., oil spills) that kill wetland plants as agents that can accelerate coastal erosion.

Author Correction: Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise.

Change history: In Fig. 2b of this Letter, 'Relative wetland change (km2)' should have read 'Relative wetland change (%)' and equations (2) and (3) have been changed from 'RSLRcrit = (m × TRe) × Sed + i' and 'Sedcrit = (RSLR - i)/(m × TRe)', respectively. The definition of the variables in equation (2) has been updated. These errors have been corrected online.

Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise.

The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise during the twenty-first century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20 and 90 per cent (for low and high sea-level rise scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, which will in turn result in the loss of biodiversity and highly valued ecosystem services1-3. These projections do not necessarily take into account all essential geomorphological4-7 and socio-economic system feedbacks8. Here we present an integrated global modelling approach that considers both the ability of coastal wetlands to build up vertically by sediment accretion, and the accommodation space, namely, the vertical and lateral space available for fine sediments to accumulate and be colonized by wetland vegetation. We use this approach to assess global-scale changes in coastal wetland area in response to global sea-level rise and anthropogenic coastal occupation during the twenty-first century. On the basis of our simulations, we find that, globally, rather than losses, wetland gains of up to 60 per cent of the current area are possible, if more than 37 per cent (our upper estimate for current accommodation space) of coastal wetlands have sufficient accommodation space, and sediment supply remains at present levels. In contrast to previous studies1-3, we project that until 2100, the loss of global coastal wetland area will range between 0 and 30 per cent, assuming no further accommodation space in addition to current levels. Our simulations suggest that the resilience of global wetlands is primarily driven by the availability of accommodation space, which is strongly influenced by the building of anthropogenic infrastructure in the coastal zone and such infrastructure is expected to change over the twenty-first century. Rather than being an inevitable consequence of global sea-level rise, our findings indicate that large-scale loss of coastal wetlands might be avoidable, if sufficient additional accommodation space can be created through careful nature-based adaptation solutions to coastal management.

Vegetation recovery in tidal marshes reveals critical slowing down under increased inundation.

A declining rate of recovery following disturbance has been proposed as an important early warning for impending tipping points in complex systems. Despite extensive theoretical and laboratory studies, this 'critical slowing down' remains largely untested in the complex settings of real-world ecosystems. Here, we provide both observational and experimental support of critical slowing down along natural stress gradients in tidal marsh ecosystems. Time series of aerial images of European marsh development reveal a consistent lengthening of recovery time as inundation stress increases. We corroborate this finding with transplantation experiments in European and North American tidal marshes. In particular, our results emphasize the power of direct observational or experimental measures of recovery over indirect statistical signatures, such as spatial variance or autocorrelation. Our results indicate that the phenomenon of critical slowing down can provide a powerful tool to probe the resilience of natural ecosystems.

Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise.

Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr-1), with surface elevation change of 4.2-11.0 mm yr-1 compared with 1.5-7.2 mm yr-1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.